PATH News · 2026-11-15

morning outlook · knowledge cutoff 05:00 PT · built 05:05 PT
Today and tomorrow in the western day-ahead market — the two-day outlook for DA trading.

All times Pacific. HE = hour ending — HE1 is midnight to 01:00 PT.

News list

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Nothing new since yesterday's edition.

Weather across the West chart

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Southern California high — San Diego71 °FHE13
Northern California high — San Francisco61 °FHE14
Oregon high — Portland53 °FHE16
Washington high — Seattle52 °FHE16
Coolest hour — Medford38 °FHE24
Widest departure from normal — Medford-12.2 °FHE17

Load forecast chart

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CISO peak26,918 MWHE18
CISO trough18,516 MWHE4
Trough-to-peak ramp8,402 MWHE4 to HE18
Steepest hour-over-hour step1,967 MWHE7

No day-ahead load forecast published yet at build time for PacifiCorp East, Arizona Public Service.

Partial data: BPA (1 hour published), Idaho Power (1 hour published), NV Energy (1 hour published), PacifiCorp West (1 hour published), Portland General (1 hour published), Puget Sound Energy (1 hour published) — not drawn on the chart.

CAISO's figures are its 2DA forecast run; the day-ahead run was not published at build time.

Solar chart

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Forecast peak 2026-11-1514,497 MWHE11
Forecast peak 2026-11-1611,118 MWHE11
Biggest single hub, SP159,932 MWHE11 on 2026-11-16
Day-over-day peak change-3,378 MW2026-11-15 to 2026-11-16
Hours above half peak, 2026-11-167 hoursHE9 to HE15

BPA does not publish solar generation separately, so this chart is the CAISO forecast only.

Tomorrow's forecast is published through HE16 at build time.

Wind chart

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Forecast peak 2026-11-153,583 MWHE1
Forecast peak 2026-11-162,637 MWHE16
Biggest single hub, SP152,509 MWHE16 on 2026-11-16
Day-over-day peak change-946 MW2026-11-15 to 2026-11-16
Hours above half peak, 2026-11-164 hoursHE13 to HE16
BPA actual peak, last 24 h796 MWHE24 on 2026-11-14

Tomorrow's forecast is published through HE16 at build time.

Hydro table

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BPA hydro, latest daily mean4,372 MW2026-11-15
BPA hydro, start of the window7,041 MW2026-11-09
Change over the window-2,669 MW2026-11-09 to 2026-11-15
The Dalles Apr-Sep water supply, % of average77 %
Columbia basin (HUC 1701-1707) SWE, % of median32.7 %
MetricValueUnitNote
The Dalles Apr-Sep water supply, % of average77%72,957 KAF vs 94,166 avg, issued 2026-11-14
Columbia basin (HUC 1701-1707) SWE, % of median32.7%159 of 209 station(s) reporting, reading date 2026-11-14

Water supply volumes are in KAF (thousand acre-feet).

The chart is BPA's daily mean hydro generation; its 7 daily values are plotted rather than repeated in the table.

Natural gas table

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Hub or fuel regionPriceUnitTrade date
Henry Hub3$/MMBtu2026-11-11
CAISO balancing area2.52$/MMBtu2026-11-15
PacifiCorp West balancing area1.59$/MMBtu2026-11-15
Portland General Electric balancing area2.15$/MMBtu2026-11-15
Puget Sound Energy balancing area2.19$/MMBtu2026-11-15
PacifiCorp East balancing area2.5$/MMBtu2026-11-15
NV Energy balancing area2.5$/MMBtu2026-11-15
Arizona Public Service balancing area2.08$/MMBtu2026-11-15

Henry Hub is EIA's last published daily spot, 2026-11-11 — 4 days behind the CAISO fuel-region prices in the rows below it.

Showing 7 of 203 CAISO fuel regions.

Balancing-area rows are CAISO's aggregate fuel regions: the lowest fuel-region price inside that area on the trade date.

Other fleet and outages table

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TypeInterface or unitValueUnitDetail
nuclearDiablo Canyon 2100% powerNRC status 2026-11-13
nuclearDiablo Canyon 1100% powerNRC status 2026-11-13
nuclearColumbia Generating Station100% powerNRC status 2026-11-13
transmissionPATH_WOR (ticket 21182615)27,678MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-11-16 to 2026-11-16, 4 published segments; CIMA-ELDORADO-PISGAH NO.1-Cima-230.00-LINE
transmissionPATH_WOR (ticket 21100457)27,678MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-11-16 to 2026-11-17, 4 published segments; LUGO-PISGAH NO.1-LUGO_-230.00-LINE
transmissionPATH_WOR (ticket 11802665)24,908MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-09-07 to 2027-02-05, 150 published segments; McCullough-Victorville 1 500 kV Line
transmissionADLANTOVICTVL-SP_ITC (ticket 20667835)6,741MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-11-06 to 2026-12-31, 8 published segments; SC122, 230 kV breaker
transmissionADLANTOVICTVL-SP_ITC (ticket 19380912)6,460MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-07-12 to 2027-05-01, 16 published segments; SC112, 230 kV breaker
transmissionADLANTOVICTVL-SP_ITC (ticket 20907624)6,460MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-11-07 to 2027-04-01, 8 published segments; LUGO-VICTORVILLE (SCE|LDWP)-LUGO_-500.00-LINE
transmissionMALIN500_ISL (ticket 19680457)3,400MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-10-31 to 2027-06-01, 65 published segments; ROUND MTN-TABLE MTN 1 (ROUND MTN SCAP) at Round Mt., 500 kV series compensator
transmissionMALIN500_ISL (ticket 19669482)3,400MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-10-31 to 2027-03-29, 35 published segments; ROUND MTN-TABLE MTN 2 at Round Mt., 500 kV series compensator
transmissionMALIN500_ISL (ticket 20190999)3,400MW OTC in effectboth directions, 2026-11-04 to 2026-11-19, 21 published segments; FERN RD-TABLE MTN 2 at Table Mountain, 500 kV line
path_limitPATH_WOR (ticket 15930836)27,678MW path limitboth directions, 2026-09-07 to 2027-02-05, 38 published segments; LDWP Path Limits
path_limitPATH_WOR (ticket 15931258)27,678MW path limitboth directions, 2026-09-07 to 2027-02-05, 186 published segments; LDWP Path Limits
path_limitPATH_WOR (ticket 18510114)24,908MW path limitboth directions, 2026-09-07 to 2027-02-05, 154 published segments; LDWP Path Limits

Showing the 12 largest of 44 CAISO transmission records at or above 500 MW.

The last 3 row(s) are published path limits, not equipment outages: the 3 largest of 24 in today's report.

Neither figure is the size of what is out of service. "MW OTC in effect" is the transfer capability CAISO publishes for the interface with the outage applied; "MW path limit" is a limit the owner published on the path. Each is the highest value that record carries over tomorrow's intervals, and the rows are ranked by it, so the largest number is the least constrained interface, not the biggest outage.

Price forecast chart

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Malin day-ahead peak55.15 $/MWhHE15
NP15 day-ahead peak49.15 $/MWhHE17
SP15 day-ahead peak44.72 $/MWhHE17
Malin day-ahead trough31.57 $/MWhHE5
NP15 day-ahead trough35.25 $/MWhHE11
SP15 day-ahead trough8.03 $/MWhHE15

These are today's day-ahead prices as they cleared yesterday afternoon, not a forecast. The price forecast arrives at 08:15 PT.

Yesterday chart

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NP15 widest day-ahead premium5.69 $/MWhHE22
SP15 widest day-ahead premium11.05 $/MWhHE6
Furthest hour from its 30-day median, NP151.7 zHE9 at 1.83 $/MWh
Average DA-RT vs 30-day, NP153.61 $/MWhdaily mean
Furthest hour from its 30-day median, SP15-2.7 zHE13 at -15.33 $/MWh
Average DA-RT vs 30-day, SP15-1.06 $/MWhdaily mean
HubHourDA-RT yesterday ($/MWh)30-day mean ($/MWh)z vs 30 daysPercentile in 30 daysSeasonal mean ($/MWh)z vs seasonSamples 30d/seasonalStanding
NP15Day0.04-3.570.4710.02-0.214/180—
NP15HE1-0.4-3.450.3640.82-0.414/180—
NP15HE20.84-6.370.7640.98-0.114/180—
NP15HE32.06-3.530.7791.110.114/180—
NP15HE41.97-3.610.5641.230.114/180—
NP15HE51.9-2.480.2641.150.114/180—
NP15HE6-6.74-1.35-0.7211.31-1.614/180—
NP15HE7-6.880.98-0.6290.83-1.414/180—
NP15HE8-0.39-6.150.8640.16-0.214/180—
NP15HE91.83-6.791.7930.190.114/180—
NP15HE104.81-6.711.785-0.730.513/180—
NP15HE111.11-5.370.662-0.15013/180—
NP15HE12-0.25-2.930.3620.17013/180—
NP15HE13-2.11-6.330.469-0.06-0.113/180—
NP15HE14-1.81-6.640.3690.51-0.113/180—
NP15HE15-2.86-7.1-0.1460.73-0.213/180—
NP15HE16-10.57-3.95-1.431-0.5-1.213/180—
NP15HE170.93-8.650.485-1.94-0.313/180—
NP15HE181.83-1.010.564-5-0.114/180—
NP15HE194.431.990.357-5.530.214/180—
NP15HE202.322.030.2570.37014/180—
NP15HE214.12-4.370.8640.760.214/180—
NP15HE225.69-2.610.8790.880.414/180—
NP15HE231.66-1.670.2641.32-0.214/180—
NP15HE24-2.42-1.880501.78-0.914/180—
SP15Day-0.490.57-0.1361.45-0.514/180—
SP15HE18.08-1.81.1931.72114/180—
SP15HE26.24-3.181.1862.050.914/180—
SP15HE36.36-2.61.2861.941.114/180—
SP15HE47.13-1.91.21001.971.114/180largest positive in 30 days
SP15HE59.77-0.941.4931.711.614/180—
SP15HE611.050.451.6861.81.314/180—
SP15HE77.349.420.3641.30.514/180—
SP15HE8-7.79-2.76-0.5361.73-1.414/180—
SP15HE9-3.52-1.93-0.343-0.15-0.514/180—
SP15HE10-10.640.76-1.48-0.94-1.413/180—
SP15HE11-13.422.13-1.98-0.7-1.713/180—
SP15HE12-14.09-0.11-1.28-1.08-1.713/180—
SP15HE13-15.33-0.95-2.78-0.54-1.513/180—
SP15HE14-15.191.93-1.980.66-1.213/180—
SP15HE15-13.214.12-1.5151.88-1.213/180—
SP15HE16-9.658.21-1232.11-1.413/180—
SP15HE17-0.5-1.3-0.5382.31-0.513/180—
SP15HE182.790.10.7641.44014/180—
SP15HE195.243.070.4642.930.414/180—
SP15HE207.073.680.6642.250.814/180—
SP15HE216.17-0.790.6712.620.414/180—
SP15HE226.091.311.2712.620.314/180—
SP15HE233.9-0.350.5642.58014/180—
SP15HE244.42-0.70.6712.690.214/180—

Baseline: hourly DA-RT for NP15, SP15 against two windows -- the 30 days before 2026-11-14, and the same date in earlier years give or take 45 days, which follows the season rather than the calendar. Each z is robust (median and MAD), and this letter only says outlier at |z| of 3 or more; the percentile is where the hour sat inside its own 30 days. These are spread numbers, not price levels -- the table above has the day-ahead and real-time legs hour by hour. Malin is not in the price history. Seasonal comps reach back before EDAM went live on 2026-05-01.